“Lebanon debate”
For the first time in a long while, US president joe Biden mentioned Lebanon in his speech following the announcement of a US initiative for a ceasefire in Gaza, and a solution regarding the Lebanese southern borders with Israel.
Does this signal from America suggest an end to the war, even if it will take more than six weeks to be decided upon? Will a solution for the borders between Lebanon and Israel really come to light?
Opposition parliamentary circles suggest that the agreement, some details of which were revealed by US envoy Amos Hochstein a few days ago, may pave the way for a new phase in southern Lebanon.
However, this scenario seems distant, especially since the agreement is closely linked to a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hezbollah had reiterated that no agreement will take place before the end of the Gaza war and military operations. Therefore, according to the sources, the date could be tomorrow or even next spring. The current war in the south started in solidarity with Gaza, hence the possibility of separating between the southern front and Gaza is non-existing, both in external and internal policy.
Regarding the US initiative towards Lebanon, the sources indicate that it depends on stopping Israel from escalating the war throughout Lebanon. Hence, the success of this agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is of utmost importance. However, Hezbollah's specific requests remain unknown.
Nevertheless, the catastrophic "repercussions" described by these sources cannot be ignored.
Hezbollah awaits the minute the war will end. Especially since it did not think it would last this long, nor did it expect the destruction of entire villages on the southern borders, as Israel did not hesitate to strike Dahiya and Baalbek.
Israel is also attempting to destroy villages in the south that it deems necessary to prevent a repeat of the October 7th attack.
These sources also confirmed that the war cannot end unless 2 conditions are met: a Hamas exit from Gaza, and Hezbollah s 10 km retreat from the south.
In general terms, Hochstein’s plan is ready. He had proposed it in Beirut, centered around determining the southern borders with Israel based on the Lebanese vision, or the Shiite vision through speaker of the Parliament Nabih Beri. Any alterations might be possible in later stages, especially since field developments could impose a different approach.
However, Hochstein s plan will not undergo radical changes, regardless of how late it reaches the final discussion table in Beirut. Until then, the war will continue, with no rules of engagement or limits.
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