Bassil and Frangieh: Third Time is Not a Charm

“Lebanon Debate”

The leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, remains determined to undermine Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh's presidential candidacy.

Bassil's pursuit seems more driven by personal motives than political ones, evident in his recent initiatives aimed at pressuring Shiite parties to withdraw support for Frangieh.

The first initiative was when Bassil crossed a red line in his relationship with Hezbollah by agreeing with the opposition bloc to back former Minister Jihad Azour's candidacy, despite Hezbollah's historical support for both Bassil and his uncle, former President Michel Aoun.

The thought that Frangieh could become president pushed Bassil to take an extreme measure: elect Azour even without a Shiite consent.
However, this move failed to achieve its intended outcome.

The second time around, following the October 7th conflict in Gaza and southern Lebanon, Bassil proposed general brigadier Elias Al Bayssari, General Security chief, to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

Bassil hoped this offer would sway Berri away from Hezbollah's influence and towards supporting his candidate, also endorsed by Qatar.

However, despite this tempting offer, Berri remained unfazed, and Bassil's plan fell short again.

Today, Bassil is pursuing a third initiative, attempting to form a bloc comprising the Free Patriotic Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, and the Moderation Nation bloc to select a third candidate.

This move aims to exert pressure on the Shiite parties from one side, and the opposing bloc on the other side.

However, the third time does not seem to be any different than the others, as it will also be doomed to failure, as both Shiite parties are not ready to give up Frangieh, and Walid Jumblatt is not willing to face Hezbollah and Amal.

Moreover, another factor is the inability of the “Moderation” bloc to conclude a bilateral agreement with Bassil in isolation from the opposition, specifically the “Lebanese Forces”.

The Moderation bloc is characterized by a centrist position that it strives to maintain, while Bassil will remain in the eyes of all other political forces as another force fighting for power, no matter how much he tries to advertise himself as a moderator.

Ultimately, Bassil's attempts to thwart Sleiman Frangieh's candidacy are likely to be unsuccessful.

Frangieh's candidacy will likely last until a resolution is reached following the end of the war in Gaza and southern Lebanon.


باسيل - فرنجية: الثالثة مش ثابتة