Geagea, Bassil and Gemayel Caught in Frangieh's Web

"Lebanon Debate"

Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh surprised many yesterday with a proposal calling on all Christian parties to support Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea for president. This move aimed to hold a competition in parliament to verify the Christian power of each among representatives.

Since the end of former President Michel Aoun's term and amidst Shiite initiatives backing Frangieh for president, campaigns have intensified to undermine Christian forces gunning for presidency.

"Lebanon Debate" sources confirmed that Frangieh faced many attempts to cast him aside during his presidential election campaign on the basis of “who does he represent as a Christian?”

However, Frangieh knew how to counter this criticism and opted for an offensive strategy that involved pressure tactics.

The sources clarified that Frangieh suggested a parliamentary competition involving Geagea, Gebran Bassil, and Sami Gemayel alongside himself, meaning the four powerful people recognized by Bkerki. The winner would become president, and the losers are expected to acknowledge and congratulate the victor.

However, it was only natural for this proposal to be met with resistance due to doubts about defeating Frangieh in parliament, since the latter will receive the majority of the votes if Geagea, Bassil and Gemayel nominate themselves.

Frangieh later came up with another proposal during the Ehden massacre anniversary mass, proposing Geagea as the strongest candidate among them. The Marada leader wanted the 3 opponents to agree and nominate Geagea so that 2 main camps will be competing in the Parliament.

Yet, both Bassil and Gemayel rejected this suggestion outright.

The sources considered: “Through this proposal Frangieh opened a “fake” loophole, as he expected of his opponents to exploit it, especially since he included himself in it. However, his actual plan was to turn the tables on them. Through this maneuver, he scored a point in his favor and blocked the way for them to calibrate him again with Christian representation.”

Frangieh had well calculated his odds before suggesting this proposal as he knew that Bassil and Gemayel would never elect the Lebanese forces leader as president. Therefore, Frangieh knew how to give Geagea false hope, and reveal the intentions of Bassil and Gemayel. It appears that none of the 3leaders are willing to endorse each other's candidacy, since their cooperation is limited to preventing Frangieh from taking office.

The sources clarified that Frangieh also depended on the likelihood that even if Gemayel and Bassil agreed to elect Geagea, the other Christian representatives in the parliament would not vote for him.

According to the sources, Frangieh recalled the era of President Michel Aoun, when the praises were being sang to the Free Patriotic Movement as Aoun was one of the strongest presidents in terms of Christian representation, alerting him today that after the October Revolution, Geagea seized this power to become the strongest Christian man.

From this standpoint, Frangieh urged the free patriotic movement to adopt Geagea’s candidacy as he is currently the strongest Christian man.
Therefore, he successfully undermined the Free Patriotic Movement's claim to champion the strongest presidential candidate, shifting the narrative in his favor.

However, the sources clarified that Frangieh isn't as weak in the Christian community as perceived. He received 15 votes in previous election sessions, which accounts for a quarter of the Christian votes. Additionally, he has earned support from Muslim parties, a factor his opponents lack.

The sources suggest that once Frangieh's opponents declare their candidacies, they will abandon calls for Christian unity, resorting to Christian fanaticism which will inevitably fail.

The Sources concluded that Frangieh's counterattack has been effective, particularly in the media scene as his speech yesterday held a distinct Christian message with strategic lessons.

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