War Drums Will Secure Balance

“Lebanon Debate”


Despite the drums of war sounding in the south, confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah have so far remained within the geographical frame of their engagement lines.

The escalation has primarily occurred 'on the spot,' although developments in weapon usage and target types have set a new stage for the conflict. This includes flexible rules of engagement and territorial occupancy, with varying effects across southern Lebanon and beyond.

With Washington's intervention on the escalation line, amid talks about US envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Israel, diplomatic circles suggested that the chances of the conflict spreading from the south to other regions are minimal, despite recent Israeli threats.

However, the possibility remains concerning as Israel has not ruled it out from its plans. Diplomatic sources speaking to 'Lebanon Debate' emphasized their past experiences with Israel's strategic decisions, closely aligned with Washington.

The sources added that even the US appears uncertain about Israel's future actions, prompting efforts to increase American and international pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu.

When asked about the American stance if Netanyahu decide on a full scale war, the circles confirmed that Washington defends Israel only within the occupied Palestinian territories, differing from its support outside of these borders.

Hence, the sources differentiate between defending and endorsing Israel as until now, the US opposes a full-scale war to maintain regional balance in a minimally acceptable manner.

Regarding the French role in de-escalation, sources highlighted its significant political and security contributions, particularly as Hochstein's role is more limited to the border conflict.

Regarding war preparations on the ground, diplomatic circles revealed that these are aimed at increasing the trust within the Israeli government, reflecting Netanyahu's original goal.

Meanwhile, the Axis of Resistance’s preparations serve to boost morale among its affiliates. The pressure on the southern front serves a dual purpose: it strengthens the Axis' influence and provides Iran with leverage at negotiation tables while Israel's intensified targeting operations convey readiness and capability to face any confrontation.

From this point, the recent pressure, mobilization and increased targeting aim to establish an anticipated balance soon after achieving the intended goal of a ceasefire in Gaza.


التلويح بالحرب لتكريس توازن بعد هدنة غزة"