Hochstein in Beirut: A Potential Weapon-Free Zone

“Lebanon Debate”

The recent escalation in southern Lebanon prompted the American administration to send their envoy, Amos Hochstein, to the region to assess the situation.

Hochstein arrived in Tel Aviv yesterday for discussions and is expected to travel to Beirut either today or tomorrow.

According to informed sources close to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Hochstein plans to visit Beirut to meet with Berri.

Reports indicate that Hochstein has been in contact with several Lebanese politicians in recent days, including General Joseph Aoun, Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, whom he previously met in Washington. It is understood that Hochstein's visit was at the direct request of the US administration, with new proposals aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region. He will be discussing these ideas with officials in Tel Aviv and Beirut, seeking their cooperation to achieve the objectives of his visit.

These proposals may include a return to respecting the operational rules that have been in place since October 8th, particularly regarding military activities not extending beyond 7 kilometers from certain areas.

Hochstein's visit aligns with US and Israeli interests to prevent further reasons for Israeli settlers to relocate towards central Israel. An expansion of military activities, without ground invasion, could potentially displace up to 100 thousand settlers from Haifa and Nahariya to Tel Aviv, putting significant pressure on the capital.

In the meantime, information has been circulating that Hochstein had a productive meeting with General Michel Aoun in Washington, where he proposed ideas related to managing the southern front, potentially creating weapon-free zones (not buffer zones) along the border with Israel, although such ideas may face challenges in unilateral implementation. However, Hochstein appears determined to propose and promote ideas, despite the challenges involved.

The US administration's decision to send Hochstein was influenced by the Israeli assassination targeting a top commander in Hezbollah, followed by a failed assassination attempt in another region whose targets remain unidentified. These operations have revealed the Israeli intentions to drag Hezbollah into expanding the conflict by giving Israel a pretext to expand the war from its side.

Albeit restricted geographically, it was noted that Hezbollah responded to the assassinations with military operations characterized by tremendous fire precision, not witnessed since march 8.

It was also revealed that Washington aims to avoid further escalation and is currently active in exploring potential investments in Hezbollah's relationship with Hamas, which could influence Hamas to soften its stance on Gaza ceasefire conditions.

According to Washington’s estimations, achieving a ceasefire in Gaza could automatically lead to a ceasefire on the southern front, paving the way for Hochstein to intensify efforts towards a regional solution. However, Hezbollah maintains a firm stance that there can be no resolution to the southern conflict without a Gaza ceasefire.

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