What Prevents Israel from Expanding the War

“Lebanon Debate”

Amid diplomatic warnings and the alleged Israeli plan for a war on Lebanon later this month, as reported by the German magazine Bild, field estimates are raising concerns that the embassies calls for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately could signal an imminent escalation of conflict from Gaza into Lebanon.

Retired General and strategic expert Naji Malaeb, has disclosed that according to alleged Israeli preparations, troops are being relocated from Gaza to the north, alongside threats from the Air Force Commander and Ehud Olmert's statements about Israel's intent to "annihilate" Lebanon.

In an interview with "Lebanon Debate", General Malaeb discussed factors hindering the conflict's expansion into Lebanon. He highlighted two main points: The day following any Israeli expansion on the Lebanese front will be faced with a higher expansion. This is what Israel did not expect, because in the past it was the one who encountered escalations by escalating tenfold. Today, Israel is like Ukraine in need of equipment, weapons, ammunition and missiles to any war it might wage, therefore, the decision is no longer with Israel alone, but rather with Washington. Hence Israel cannot make a unilateral decision to wage war, no matter how strong the ability of the Jewish lobby in America is.

Regarding statements from Parliament Head Nabih Berri about the tough month ahead, General Malaeb speculated on Netanyahu's actions before his trip to the US. He questioned whether Netanyahu would initiate a war and seek American support or draw the US into regional conflict to defend Israel's interests.

General Malaeb also raised concerns about Netanyahu's aspirations for US involvement, suggesting that American participation could neutralize threats from the north and deter the axis of resistance.

Here, Malaeb wondered about the extent to which the United States can respond to such a right-wing Israeli proposal, and whether the opposition movement inside Israel to overthrow the war cabinet will wage war, or submit to the American vision of making Israel acceptable in the region, and create a government that recognizes a Palestinian country. The expert also pondered whether it will be an escape forward by Netanyahu before he goes to Congress in order to blow up the front and implicate the United States in supporting Israel.

The general interpreted Israeli sonic booms over Beirut as an attempt to achieve two objectives: first, to unsettle regions outside the typical war zones and turn public sentiment against Hezbollah; second, to create fear among civilians and visitors, showcasing Israel's aerial capabilities.

Furthermore, General Malaeb speculated that Israeli low-altitude flights are intended to provoke responses from Hezbollah's air defenses, aiming to pinpoint their locations and assess their capabilities. Hezbollah has primarily utilized its air defenses at close and medium ranges, but it is possible they have defenses at higher altitudes as well. The Israeli military's actions appear to be an effort to gather intelligence on Hezbollah's air defense capabilities, including any higher-altitude systems that may not have been previously tested or revealed.

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