Southern Front: Mediation Falters, Conflict Looms and Surprises Await

“Lebanon Debate”

The efforts of the mediators to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a truce, even if only humanitarian, have failed so far. A truce would directly affect the southern front, where the threat of an all-out war looms amid the intensified Israeli threats and the increase in confrontations. Tormented by the possibility that all mediation efforts will go in vain, developments on the ground are accelerating at a dangerous pace, without any international intervention follow-up or pressure to restore calm.

According to informed parliamentary sources speaking to "Lebanon Debate," the diplomatic campaign to pressure for a truce in Gaza has not eased tensions on the southern front. These sources indicate that several recent indicators have instilled suspicion and fear among various political parties. These indicators hint at a potential surprise move that could upend the existing rules of engagement or the norms that have governed confrontations since the al-Aqsa flood operation in recent months.

Based on the abovementioned, the parliamentary sources pointed out that expectations for a direct US intervention on the southern front have waned. As days go by, the south is teetering on the brink of a full-scale war with Israel. In order to implement the security agreement proposed by Amos Hochstein to Washington two weeks ago, both he and other mediators are refraining from playing an active role.

The parliamentary sources stated that their “recent” fears emerged from Israel’s public stances, indicating its unwillingness to end the war and its rejection of attempts to broker a truce with Gaza. The US, on the other hand, refutes the ignition of a regional conflict following the tensions along the Lebanese southern borders. This situation suggests multiple potential outcomes in the near future as the front moves closer to a broader military confrontation.

Therefore, despite the US discussions and the French stance regarding a truce on the southern front, the sources concentrate solely on the Israeli stance. They claim that Washington and Paris are not exerting sufficient pressure for the implementation of Resolution 1701, particularly from the Israeli side. Moreover, it appears evident that the focus of the conflict has shifted elsewhere, and the confrontations now entail many potential outcomes.

خشية من مفاجأة قد تطيح بقواعد الإشتباك