Gas in Lebanon: Waiting for the Gaza War to Settle

“Lebanon Debate”

The ongoing conflict in the South raises several questions surrounding the fate of gas in Lebanon. This issue has been someone disregarded these past months despite all efforts to shed the lights on the wealth it would bring the country. This will be achieved once internal and external efforts start excavations in order to drill new gas wells.

The numerous obstacles hinders Lebanon's oil sector from progressing objectively, similar to what occurs in other oil-producing countries. It remains clear that this issue remains separate from ongoing military conflicts on the southern front. This distinction is evident as drilling platforms on the Israeli side continue to operate normally, while Lebanon is still awaiting Total's report.

In an interview with Lebanon Debate, Professor and Researcher in Quantum Mechanics and Economics, Jassem Ajaka, openly acknowledges that external involvement in gas extraction operations in Lebanon hinges on all political, economic, and security landscapes. Therefore, the absence of stability has prevented any international approval for gas extraction from Lebanon's economic zone.

The recent security tension is not the sole obstacle impending progress in the oil and gas file. A fundamental issue obstructing this and any other processes is the imposition of quota-based equations and corruption on all investment projects, regardless of their nature. Consequently, Lebanon's oil wealth may be wasted which will deprive Lebanese citizens of the benefits it can provide.

Within this approach, Prof. Ajaka list all details regarding the reported absence of gas in Blocks 4 and 9, as previously announced by Total. Had there been different findings, the company would have likely shared the technical report from the exploration process with Lebanese authorities and the public. Consequently, the Professor doubts that there is gas in Lebanon, given that ongoing gas production is at tens of kilometers south of the Exclusive Economic Zone.

Furthermore, he connects war with gas resources. He noted that Amos Hochstein, the US mediator overseeing maritime demarcation between Lebanon and Israel, is also involved in managing the oil sector since he is addressing land border issues. However, negotiations with regards to land borders, along with other internal political and non-political files, are delayed until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached and the Israeli conflict in the region is put to an end.

Prof. Ajaka finally adds that what he finds noteworthy in this context: Amos Hochstein's announcement in Washington regarding a three-stage draft agreement. The first stage involves calming the situation in southern Lebanon. Then, the second phase consists of investigating areas of disagreements along the southern border with Israel the enemy. The third and final stage entails researching the oil and gas file and initiating gas exploration operations in Lebanon's Exclusive Economic Zone.

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