US and Iran: Interest Alignment Preventing a War in Lebanon

“Lebanon Debate”

The specter of war haunts Lebanon amid unfolding scenes of destruction and heightened fears fueled by Israeli threats against Hezbollah and international warnings of a "second Gaza in Lebanon." Tensions remain high on the southern front, where preparations for potential conflict intensify, overshadowing daily life in Lebanon. Political analyst Nabil Bou Monsef observes conflicting signs regarding the possibility and timing of war. While positions on both sides suggest a countdown to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Bou Monsef believes that the rules of engagement have remained unchanged since October 8th. The current confrontations are controlled according to these rules and indicate that the war is limited, not the skirmishes.

Regarding the possibility of a war, analyst Bou Monsef told "Lebanon Debate" that initially, the situation is not expected to escalate significantly or lead to a decision for war until after the Battle of Rafah ends. The assessment hinges on whether Israel will declare a war on Lebanon or if the current status quo will persist as it stands today.

The analyst emphasizes that predicting the onset of war and its timing is currently impossible, as the final decision rests on developments in the field. Major powers are uncertain about the future of this front, which has evolved from a support base for Gaza into an active warfront with defined boundaries. The situation could lead to a regional disaster, with widespread destruction along the Lebanese border strip and over 80,000 people displaced from southern villages. The scale of losses and displacement is similarly dire on both sides.

Furthermore, the analyst reveals that as long as the Gaza war persists, the verbal intimidation will never stop. He noted that each party seeks to maintain motivation and mobilization among its own audience and support base.

What is particularly concerning, according to Bou Monsef, is the unified Israeli stance to declare a war on Lebanon despite all internal differences. The unanimity of their different political parties is striking because, even though Israelis disagree on everything, they only get along when it comes to striking Lebanon.

Contrary to popular belief, Bou Monsef clarifies that the US did not give a green light to Israel, especially given the proximity of the US presidential elections. He states that it is actually the US rejection and pressure on Netanyahu that have thus far prevented the outbreak of war.
Regarding Iran's stance, the analyst observes that Tehran is not eager for war. Therefore, the alignment of interests between Washington and Tehran serves as a deterrent, preventing the escalation of a war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Regarding potential factors that could shift the US stance, he Monsef highlights that, in the event of a significant security incident, the US would undoubtedly support Israel.

Bou Monsef finished by elaborating that both the US and Iran are preoccupied with their respective elections. This explains the halt in negotiations following a recent round of talks concluded a few weeks ago.

!تقاطع أميركي ـ إيراني يمنع حرب لبنان... حتى الآن