Bassil Potential Allies: 86 MPs Against the Lebanese Forces and al-Kateb

“Lebanon Debate”

At a time where one cannot predict the outcome of the confrontations on the southern borders, and on the eve of the one-year mark since the last presidential election session, various mediations and “presidential” initiatives entered a crucial stage as responses to the proposals put forth by their authors become clearer. There is uncertainty whether any initiative will achieve its desired outcomes, despite some reshaping the political landscape, particularly with new allies within the opposition.

In this context, the initiative of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Gebran Bassil aims to shift parliamentary alignments. This initiative coincides with the closer ties between the FPM and Speaker Nabih Berri, and therefore coordination with Hezbollah, without endorsing the Shiite Duo’s presidential option.

However, this shift evokes memories of past alliances between the FPM and Hezbollah. Will it revive the spirit of the Mar Mikhael Understanding?

According to political analyst Kassem Kassir, Bassil's initiative solely focuses on presidential elections and is not related to an understanding with Hezbollah.

Kassir suggests that if an understanding were to happen, bringing together the Shiite duo, the FPM, the "National Moderation" bloc, the "Democratic Meeting," and independent MPs to form a bloc of 86 MPs, it would mark a significant shift in the political scene. Therefore, the Lebanese Forces and al-Kataeb party transform into the “opposition”.

Regarding the stance of the FPM concerning the Shiite Duo’s presidential stance, Kassir believes that while there's no specific consensus on a presidential candidate. A dialogue could pave the way for new understandings, including potential support for the leader of the Marada party Sleiman Frangieh or others. The key is to find a new vision that unites these forces.

In terms of Hezbollah's perspective on Bassil's initiative and similar endeavors, Kassir highlighted that the Hezbollah sees Bassil's actions in a positive light. Additionally, the movement of the MPs of the Democratic Meeting is viewed favorably. Furthermore, the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc has embraced the presidential initiative.

In response to a question related to the impact of these presidential initiatives on new political landscape, the political analyst believes that any agreement or alliance with regard to the presidential file will create new alliances. He revealed that the element binding these powers is their will to stand against the Lebanese Forces’ opposition to initiate a dialogue, its call for a federal state, reliance on an external intervention to alter the status quo or their common objection to the repartitions proposed.

باسيل يقلب التحالفات "رئاسياً"... 86 نائباً بوجه القوات والكتائب؟