Berri Outmatches Everyone

Mohamad el-Madani – Lebanon Debate

"Movement is a blessing," remarked a prominent political figure, describing the surge of presidential initiatives currently dominating Lebanon's political landscape. Within the halls of politicians' offices, discussions tackled the presidential file and strategies to create a common ground for opposing factions.

Following the expiration of the "National Moderation" bloc movement due to its failure to meet the Shiite duo's conditions, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) launched their respective initiatives. While similar in structure, the initiatives differ in content. Former PSP Leader Walid Jumblatt prioritizes the election of a president, seemingly without vetoing any candidate as long as they secure majority consensus. On the other hand, Gebran Bassil, the leader of the FPM, seeks to initially embrace moderation before shedding it to bring down the leading presidential candidates, General Joseph Aoun and Marada movement leader Sleiman Frangieh.

However, these presidential initiatives, played its political role in supporting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's position. This facilitates Berri’s his isolation of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea amidst their ongoing conflict of "obstruction charges." Berri emerged victorious, aided by his longstanding ally Walid Jumblatt and recent supporter Gebran Bassil.

Ones dares to say that presidential initiatives start and end in Ain al-Tineh. The Leader of the Amal movement holds the power to instigate political stagnation and introduce initiatives. He also retains the ability to indefinitely adjourn parliamentary sessions until his preferred candidate succeeds.

Berri deserves acknowledgment for proving his famous saying that the "Maronites" are the reason behind the presidential crisis. The evident discord among Maronite poles and the near-impossibility of their consensus are delaying any development. Frangieh's proposal for Geagea to present his candidacy, prompted Sami Gemayel's involvement with demands for everyone’s withdrawal, underscores this rift. Meanwhile, it remains hard for Bassil to acknowledge Geagea's legitimacy, as he remains confident in delivering a candidate aligned with his interests.

However, these movements and initiatives are unlikely to yield immediate results and disruption will persist. The notion of a third candidate is thwarted by the Shiite Duo's refusal to consider anyone beyond Sleiman Frangieh. The opposition forces headed by the Lebanese Forces reject to take part in a dialogue. Moreover, Bassil's complicating the path to a settlement by opposing Frangieh’s candidature, coupled with the PSP and the National Moderation bloc's inability to take any decision without regional approval, present additional obstacles.

Ultimately, these initiatives fail to offer innovative solutions or bold proposals capable of breaking the deadlock. Unlike previous agreements like the "Maarab Agreement" or Prime Minister Saad Hariri's endorsements of Frangieh and Michel Aoun, these initiatives lack the transformative impact needed to break the impasse. That being said, all internal efforts will go in vain if parties do not have the courage to challenge the status quo. This situation will persist until an external settlement is able to compensate for this suspicious internal incapacity.

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