2 Scenarios in the South

“Lebanon Debate”

The dynamics on the conflict fronts have significantly shifted following Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's recent speech, altering the trajectory of confrontations with Israel.

Will the threats open the doors to a full-scale battle? or did they serve the purpose of curbing any possible Israeli attack?

Media personality Fadi Bouddaya affirmed in an interview with “Lebanon Debate” that Nasrallah's speech has clarified all aspects whether political or military, and in terms of security and intelligence.

According to Bouddaya, the speech outlined a clear path for future engagements and Hezbollah's strategy in the conflict. He emphasized that Hezbollah views the current battle as defensive solidarity, not an escalation to full-scale war. Nasrallah reiterated multiple times that he does not desire a full-scale war but is prepared to respond if the Israeli enemy escalates, considering various scenarios, including those reported by the “Hodhod."

Bouddaya suggested that Nasrallah's message was aimed more at the United States than Israel, emphasizing Israel incapability to act independently without American support, whether implicit or explicit.

He also added that Nasrallah wanted to send a message that the resistance possesses significant security, intelligence, and military capabilities and has comprehensive information about potential targets.

This is what “Israeli newspapers expressed,” according to Bouddaya, who believes that we are facing two possible scenarios:

- Hezbollah does not want an escalation, but if Israel wants to escalate towards a comprehensive war that can destroy Lebanon, Hezbollah will fight back. However, this time around, the destruction that the resistance will inflict on the Israeli entity will spear no settler. Consequently, all targets are under the resistance’s range, and neither Iron Dome nor anything else will help.

- About the political messages, there is no doubt that many delegations went to Lebanon with their sole purpose being to stop the war on the southern front, however Hezbollah and Amal movement reactions were clear: The war on the southern front will persist as long as the war in Gaza persists. Furthermore, Hochstein’s message with was a clear Israeli threat with intents of war. The Americans wanted to implement Israeli interests that require to stop the war on the southern front, retreat the Radwan forces beyond the Litani, and erase any threat to Israel. Hezbollah met this threat by releasing the “Hodhod” video, in show of strength.

He also noted that these messages are connected to the previous discussions with Hochstein, when he came to negotiate Karish and other areas. Back then, Nasrallah highlighted the successful return of drones deployed to these locations, sending a clear warning to Hochstein and other negotiators not to underestimate Hezbollah, which possesses comprehensive information about potential targets if Israel fails to respect Lebanon's sovereignty.

“The idea of separating Lebanon from Gaza and Iraq is a demand primarily driven by Israel.”

He criticized some internal Lebanese parties that insist on fooling themselves, and fooling of a some of the Lebanese.

Bouddaya concluded: “It is clear that there is a problem even in the speech of some Lebanese. Today there is a clear division among the Lebanese people. The division is no longer a division over the resistance only. Today the equation has changed. Is Israel an enemy or not? Does the resistance have weapons or not? These questions are being raised amid Some parties’ declarations that Israel is not an enemy and there is no objection to peace with it.”



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