Is French enthusiasm reinstituting Berri’s discussion?

“Lebanon Debate”

The enthusiasm of both the Quintet committee and the French with regard to the presidential election coincides with many other entitlements imposed within the country. According to the analyst and political writer Daoud Ibrahim the principal cause of this enthusiasm is “the fear that the Gaza war and the military operation will persist as long as Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power.”

In anticipation of the upcoming US election, the analyst noted in his conversation with Lebanon Debate that “Washington is keen to achieve, in any way possible, some progress in the Biden administration for the sake of his voters in the midst of growing resentment due to the Israeli massacres of Palestinian civilians and amid the university protests.”

Based on the above, Ibrahim believes that "this belated international enthusiasm to pave a way is understandable. Apparently, Paris is attempting to resurrect its initial proposal, particularly in light of the letter it sent to Hezbollah over the implementation of Resolution 1701. However, it was disregarded by Haret Hreik, as if it had never been received. The letter disappointed people and strengthened their opposition to France's stance on the situation in the occupied Palestinian lands. The French stance demonstrated support for Israel in its conflict with Gaza and Lebanon's southern borders.

As for the visit of French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, Ibrahim revealed that "some speculate that France is trying to revive the initiative to support the candidate of the Shiite duo, former minister Sleiman Frangieh, to the presidency in exchange for guarantees related to the situation in the south, as well as the composition of the government. Some may take a look back at Frangieh’s recent interview on Al Jadeed talking about foreign efforts and in an attempt to revive Nabih Berri's call for dialogue. All of this can be monitored through the "positive climate" expressed by Iranian-American communication channels.

If this US-Iranian "understanding" were to be translated at the regional level and Lebanon in particular, Ibrahim raises the possibility that "it can pave the way for presidential elections in Lebanon and Quintet can claim this achievement. Moreover, Paris can promote a victory that can be attributed to the French president through his envoy to Lebanon, given France’s diminished global presence and recently in New Caledonia after what happened in Chad, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso."

Ibrahim believes that reality is no different for "Biden, who is also seeking a breakthrough that could bolster his presidential seat, especially among members of the Arab community dissatisfied with his handling of the Palestinian situation. He is aware that the Jewish voter supporting the Israeli state will not give him his vote following his recent confrontation with Netanyahu over arms shipments. The Arab countries within the Quintet want to come out with an achievement that can divert attention, even if for some time, from the inability of the Arab countries to advocate for a ceasefire in Gaza."

From a Lebanese point of view, Ibrahim asserted that “Gaza is the foremost concern due to the escalated confrontations in the south and the significant material and human losses. Following closely is the issue of Syrian displacement, which seems to be the main concern of the Lebanese internally in the next period of time."

In response to a question related to the presidential file, Ibrahim reveals, "It does not seem that the file is not in the hands of the Lebanese alone for them to decide on it. If they are to handle it alone, no solution will be found given the Shiite duo's adherence to its candidate and its inability to attract a bloc supporting this candidacy that can turn the equation."

Accordingly, Daoud concludes that "until further notice, this dynamic will continue to shape the Lebanese reality."