The War Starts When Washington Says So

“Lebanon Debate”

Israel is loudly threatening to initiate a war on all military and political levels. This country is preparing for this war by deploying brigades along its border with Lebanon, hinting at an upcoming military operation. These warnings were openly issued notwithstanding the ongoing pressure from the US to prevent any misdemeanor that can lead to war.

Despite ongoing Western diplomatic warnings to Beirut regarding the possibility of an Israeli operation, informed political sources indicate that the likelihood of a significant escalation is greater now than in the past, despite external messages denying such warnings. What reinforces this conviction among the sources is the qualitative evolution observed in confrontations on the southern front, as well as recent US stances that have emphasized the situation in southern Lebanon in an unprecedented manner.

However, according to the discussion of the political sources with Lebanon Debate, the pivotal decision does not rest with military leaders but rather with the war government. This implies that if the war government decides to start a war, its decision is linked to the stance of the US. As previously mentioned, the US is actively pressuring Israel to refrain from launching a large-scale military operation in Lebanon. This was affirmed by the US Department of State just a few hours ago when it disclosed its efforts to broker a diplomatic solution between Lebanon and Israel.

Concerning the US objectives and the effectiveness of its pressure to prevent further escalation, sources indicate that the motive is the fear that any bombing of southern Lebanon would ignite a regional war, potentially leading to Iran’s direct involvement along the confrontation lines in Iraq and Syria.

Regarding the US diplomatic solution, the sources point to the plan outlined by US envoy Amos Hochstein and the communication and pressure mechanisms implemented to avert any war since October 7. Hochstein reiterated this during a press interview two days ago, revealing that his efforts have successfully prevented conflict in the south.

!عبر الحدود المشرّعة... يدخل "ما هبّ ودبّ" إلى لبنان