France: Lebanon's “Tender Mother” Amid Political Turmoil

“Lebanon Debate”

The coup had France teetering on the edge of the worst constitutional crisis in its history. The right-wing party, or “National Rally” (Rassemblement National) topped the results of the French legislative elections.

All eyes are now fixed on the upcoming second round of the elections scheduled for this Sunday. The prospect of division seems inevitable and will undoubtedly influence the process of forming a new government. The potential accession of the extreme right to power threatens to cast a shadow over France's political horizon, potentially igniting a governance crisis.

Paris-based writer and political analyst Tamam Noureddine draws parallels between the French political landscape and Lebanon's current reality. He believes that Lebanon's disruptions are spreading all the way to France.

In an interview with Lebanon Debate, Noureddine highlighted a critical scenario: if Marine Le Pen's party, the National Rally, secures fewer than 280 seats in the House of Representatives, no party would possess the necessary parliamentary majority to govern effectively. Consequently, a technocratic government will be rejected by the parliament if it lacks political backing. This scenario will pave the way for a period of significant turmoil marked by a constitutional crisis and governance instability in France.

Regarding the timing of this governance crisis, the political analyst expects that it will unfold immediately after the announcement of the parliamentary election results. He further explains that once the elections come to an end, the process of forming a new government will commence. If the right-wing secures 280 seats, there is a possibility that Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally, may agree to form a government. However, if they fall short of the majority, he will likely decline to participate in government formation.

Should Bardella agree to form a government, Noureddine predicts that the disruption will persist. It will create a scenario of "dual leadership" in France where each leader diverges from the other.

As a consequence of such a scenario, Noureddine believes France will weaken on the international stage due to internal disputes. This strife will diminish its influence externally, impacting issues in the Middle East, including Lebanon's presidential file.

Noureddine concluded by saying that US envoy Amos Hochstein plans to stop in Paris before heading to Beirut, where he will discuss the Lebanese file alongside French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian. However, there are currently no signs of progress in this matter.

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